Getting the Big ‘Go – No Go’ Decisions Right: Harnessing the Power of Expert Knowledge Elicitation
What Expert Knowledge Elicitation is
When to use it
How to do it well
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Big decisions typically come with big risks. Expert Elicitation can reduce the risks of making the wrong call. This is a webinar on when to do Expert Elicitation and how to do Expert Elicitation.
The need:
Deciding whether to develop a new drug, to build a new manufacturing facility, to launch into a new market, to take over another company - these 'Go - No Go' decisions are all about the balance between opportunity and risk. Deciding to 'Go' entails substantial investment and the returns are uncertain. Getting the decision right, getting the balance right, demands careful evaluation of the uncertain factors. And the best and most informative way to evaluate uncertainty about any such factor is to quantify it with a probability distribution that specifies just how likely different values of the factor are.
The challenges:
To get to those probabilities always requires expert judgement, either because there are no relevant data or because judgement is needed to interpret the data or to resolve conflicts or inconsistencies in those data. But expert opinions are subjective, vary from one expert to another and can be strongly influenced by the way in which they are sought. Formal Expert Knowledge Elicitation is a rigorous, scientific process designed to address these challenges, to elicit and to synthesise the judgements of several experts in such a way as to minimise potential biases, and so to yield a probability distribution that accurately represents the current state of knowledge. In contrast, naive approaches to expert judgement can be worse than useless, and in practice can easily mislead decision makers into making poor decisions.
This webinar will describe the leading protocols for Expert Knowledge Elicitation and the ways in which they address the challenges inherent in subjective judgement. Emphasis will be placed on the tools and resources required for Expert Knowledge Elicitation, and on the kinds of decisions that benefit most from its use.
A briefing for: all big decision makers and those advising them within R&D, innovation, product development, risk management, M&A in the pharmaceutical/biotechnology, financial (banks including central banks, insurance and reinsurance companies, both life and general insurance) and investment (hedge funds, venture capital groups and value funds) industries and all those involved in making big ‘go- no go’ decisions.